KitesurferAU wrote: Interesting, does it work? From my experience all these sets always different - number of waves, size, initial breaking peak. Sometimes lulls can be minutes, sometimes just 30 seconds before big sets.
The short answer, is: yes, it works.
It's different every session, but you should be able to notice some regularity with the waves. Single waves may come seconds apart from one another, but sets are usually minutes apart. Like any other wave in physics, ocean waves will have a particular period or interval (the time it takes for two waves from the same swell to pass a fixed point - like a buoy). This changes gradually depending on the strength of the swell, but it's measurable and contributes to the regularity of set waves, or groups of waves that travel together.
Of course, there are other factors that can effect the regularity - wind, other swells, swell energy. If you look at most surf reports, you'll notice a primary swell and secondary swells. The primary swell is the one that will produce the largest waves. But the swells come from different directions and interfere with one another. If they enhance each other (constructive interference) then you end up with a larger than normal wave, like a cleanup wave that breaks out the back and washes everyone in. If they detract from each other (destructive interference) then they can cancel each other out and produce smaller than average waves which can be lulls, mushy waves, non-breaking waves, etc.
Because there are a lot of different forces at work in the ocean, there's often a chaotic element at play. But, the set waves should still be showing up at a fairly regular interval. Do you time your paddle out to the lineup so that you make it out without taking too many waves on the head? If so, you're taking advantage of the interval. If not, you really should since it makes paddling out a lot easier.
On a good day, timing the sets will allow you to surf the waves at the lineup with everyone else, then paddle outside to catch the longer period set waves when they roll through. These will often clean up surfers on the inside or spook people into paddling further out. Either way, you then have a less crowded lineup to deal with until the next outside set rolls through.
Someone who knows physics or oceanography better than me can probably do a better job explaining it. But, the short of it is, yes, you can time the sets, and that can help keep you from getting caught inside (or help you catch the bombs). Don't just take my word for it - you should try it out and see for yourself. You can even do it while sitting on the beach. Set a timer when the biggest waves roll through and then see how much time passes before the next large waves roll through. Then see if the next big set rolls through in the same amount of time. That's it.
