Surf Prediction

[CARBr6]

Okay, I'm sure this has been covered, and if so could someone please post a link to the topic?
If not then could someone give me some advice on surf prediction, I know there are hundreds of websites that provide surf forecasts, MagicSeaward being possibly the most universal one, but I would like to learn how to do it myself, or at least develop enough of a knowledge and understanding so that I can have an idea of what to expect at my local spot (which although labelled as "kent's premier surf spot" is intermittent as best!!)
This has all come about due to the recent storm weather the UK has had where all the surf forecasts have been showing huge eaves all over the south and south west coasts however on furtherinvestigation I discovered that it was all mostly gale force onshire winds and that is not conducive to good ridable waves.
So if someone can give me a simple way to work out whether I should cancel weekend plans when the surf is firinng or not I would be grateful (layman's terms where possible, I am not a geography major!!)

Ta.

[drowningbitbybit]

Ah, the london surf forecast, I remember it well...
Which SE spot are you surfing?

I got quite good at forecasting when I lived in the UK and had to travel for four hours to get to a decent wave (these days I just rock up at the beach).

MSW etc. is okay, but use it as 'data', not a forecast - look at the swell size, period, wind speed and wind direction and make your own conclusions rather than relying on their over-simple star system. If there's a webcam at your "local", look at MSW, make a prediction and then see whats really happening. Then start doing that as a forecast. Learn how MSW works at your spot.

If you want to really do it yourself (which can be useful for planning 5 days in advance), all you really need is pressure charts:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ ... ssure.html

Where you're surfing makes a big difference here - if you're on the south coast you want a big low pressure system (lots of lines packed together in a circle) out in the middle of the atlantic (towards the equator preferably), but if on the east coast the same but up in the north sea.
So the critical bits...
You want a low pressure system to be there for a while to generate waves.
You want it to be far away - a low pressure system on top of you will just be blown out.
The wind basically follows the lines of the low pressure system in an anticlockwise direction (in the northern hemisphere, other way around for the southern hemisphere).
The closer the lines (isobars) the stronger the wind.

To get a really nice swell (rare in the SE), ideally you'd have your low pressure system a little way away, but have a high pressure (very few lines) over europe/SE UK producing light winds. So a bright winters day a day or two before a storm or a few days after will often work best for SE england.

Note that for a really big storm that's very far away, it takes a couple of days for the waves to get to the UK, but by the time it gets there should have a really nice 12s+ period.

Easy

[CARBr6]

Easy!
Thanks that helps a lot. The closer spot to me is Joss Bay, but basically any of the Kent or Sussex breaks is what I'll be aiming for. Sporadic at best! According to the MSW spot info I should be on the look out for N/NE winds for swell at Joss Bay?

[drowningbitbybit]

Ah, Joss Bay - I was never really convinced by JB as a surf spot, it just doesn't have the exposure

But, yeah, a gentle NE breeze with waves rattling down the east coast or along the south coast. It's rare that that happens, and you're more likely to get local windswell (low pressure close by, and short period), which will be messy but surfable.

For what it's worth, I always found that the most consistent spot within a few hours of London was Bracklesham/Wittering. Very exposed so it gets the swell reasonably well, but you need to work out the wind as well as anything more than a gentle breeze will kill it. Only works at low to mid tide too. But, despite all that, its one of the most consistent UK winter surf spots.

[CARBr6]

I've been hearing good things about Shoreham, specifically 'The Hot Pipe'
I've also been hearing recently that Camber Sands is a viable location. Which surprises me as I've been there many times and never once seen a surfer! Plenty of kite surfing but that's all

[drowningbitbybit]

I've been hearing good things about Shoreham, specifically 'The Hot Pipe'

Hot Pipe is okay - its got a bit more protection from the wind. It can be a wee bit crowded as the take-off point is small, but its a pretty relaxed spot so you should get a wave or two. Mid-tide is best, if I remember rightly.

In general, I'd day Hot Pipe is a better wave, but Wittering is a more consistent wave - all things to take into account when you're deciding where to drive to!

[PommeDownUnder]

MMMmmm Hot Pipe nothing like cooling water from a power station to make you feel good and healthy. I know its clean but always make me chuckle thinking where the waters come from.

[CARBr6]

Right. Sorry to bump this, but I figured it was better than starting a new thread for what is basically the same question!

According to the sites there are waves at Joss Bay this weekend. However the wind is in the 18-21 mph levels and is mostly Northerly Onshore for Friday, NorthEasterly Onshore for Saturday, Onshore and Cross for Sunday and Cross Offshore for Monday. does this mean it will be pretty much a mushy wash out?

It's an 1hr 30min trip

[jaffa1949]

Not actually knowing the break but as a rule of thumb for you to consider.
The underlying swell will be present at whatever size and period predicted!
Over the top of that will be the local storm system wind generated seas at anentirely different period overrunning some times enhancing the size of the breaking wave and other times just flattening it.
Add to the chaos of the blown off tops of the waves with the wind chop crumbling down the wave face, add the weather conditions of the storm system any which way it happens to be.
The wind strength will multiply all these factors.
The surf style here is called "enter the washing machine".

Sometimes conditions like this can be workable at a sheltered point break deep in a bay, but a long sandy beach, just chaos with the rips and longshore currents enhanced but unstable.

AVOID! Or go to the beach and find out why you wouldn't consider those conditions again!

Take up kite surfing for the day!

[drowningbitbybit]

Not actually knowing the break but as a rule of thumb for you to consider.
The underlying swell will be present at whatever size and period predicted!

Nothing Jaffa said is wrong (although he is clearly used to surfing aussie pointbreaks and indo barrels rather than east coast UK mush ), but just to add a couple of points specific for Joss Bay...

At Joss Bay there won't be an underlying ground swell, there will just be the wind swell

With 20mph+ winds and a 4 second period, it will just be whitewater unfortunately. Joss Bay is so open that there won't be an option for a clean wave. Also, at Joss Bay in a strong-ish northerly, you're likely to get swept along the beach from the north end right down to the south end, which might be a bit hair-raising

So after all that - will it be worth surfing? Not really.
But will it be worth getting wet and getting some long whitewater rides along the flat sand just for practise's sake? Maybe


It's a rare day when Joss Bay gets anything other than windswell, so the trick is to spot a system like this and then hit it as the wind calms down but the swell is still bouncing about, so you might get lucky if you time your surf towards the end of the weekend.