Forecast Accuracy

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Forecast Accuracy

Postby george » Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:09 pm

Hello all
I am currently undertaking a dissertation on the accuracy of magicseaweed 24 hour surf forecasts. For 3 months I recorded the forecast conditions and compared them with the actual conditions the following day. Furthermore, I will be comparing surfers' opinions of forecast accuracy with actual accuracy, since forecast misperceptions are likely to be the cause of many prediction errors.


Please take 2 minutes to fill in this short questionnaire to help me with this project. I'll report back with my results, so you may learn something :D

A) How often do you use 1 day internet surf forecasts to plan surfs?

1) Never
2) 25%
3) 50%
4) 75%
5) Before every surf

B) How long have you been surfing?
1) 0-1 yrs
2)1-5 yrs
3) 5-10yrs
4)>10yrs

C) How long have you been using internet forecasts?

1) 0-1 yrs
2)1-5 yrs
3) 5-10yrs
4)>10yrs

D) Which website do you use?
1) Magicseaweed
2) Windguru
3) Eyeball
4) Other (please specify)

E) How long do you have to travel to see the conditions (time)?
1) I can see the conditions from home
2) < 5 minutes
3) 5-20 minutes
4) 20-60 minutes
5) >1 hour

F) How do you rate the accuracy of 1 day surf forecasts?

1= Useless, the only way is to check the waves themselves
2=Very rarely accurate
3= Normally OK but you can never be sure without checking the surf
4= Often very accurate. Gives good idea of the conditions
5= Always spot on

7) Give a percentage estimate of the accuracy of wind speed, wind direction, wave size and wave period as whole.


Please post a reply (e.g. A:1 B:3 etc). Your help will be much appreciated and I'll let you know what I learn from the project

Thanks a lot! George
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Re: Forecast Accuracy

Postby george » Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:18 pm

also, if you have any comments or tips (e.g. you may find period and wind speed more accurate than wave size), please put them in
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Re: Forecast Accuracy

Postby surf patrol » Fri Oct 21, 2011 8:55 am

george wrote:I am currently undertaking a dissertation on the accuracy of magicseaweed 24 hour surf forecasts.

Surely you're joking?
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Re: Forecast Accuracy

Postby billie_morini » Sat Oct 22, 2011 8:52 am

Ha, ha. Funny, George.
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