From one newbie to another...
I've found that you can tell if you're going to pearl before you start paddling for a wave. As you start paddling, just make sure you're in a "familiarly-good position" on the board. Keep experimenting (further back, like the above say!) and when you find the sweet-point, commit to memory and judge your pop-ups based on how far forward/back you are.
If you feel (literally, feel) the pearl coming on, just give up the wave and reposition. I'm finding that the more you get used to reading the board, the less you find yourself in the bad position to start with.
I'm guessing that as you (and I) progress to a shorter board, the position guessing game gets less forgiving.
I don't really seem to pearl too much now - just when the wave breaks over the board (messy waves!), but in that position, I've found there are two options: 1) if you're about to get shanked and it's safe (!), bail and dive into the wave (check for people - especially clueless tourists!), or 2) get in control, steer towards the shore and hop onto your belly... controlled, graceful surrender!
