INCOMING!!!!!

[drowningbitbybit]

One of the exciting bits about living in Queensland is a good bit of weather. Now I'm right down south and below the tropical cyclone zone, but...

The forecast for Thursday/Friday:

10-12ft+ swell. Significant coastal erosion likely.
200mm+ rainfall each day. Significant flash flooding likely.
Wind: 50-75 km/h. Local gusts significantly stronger. Damage likely.
Tidal flooding. King tide combined with heavy rainfall and swell event likely to lead to severe and extensive flooding.


Oh good. That'll be fun

We had some flooding about 3 weeks ago (neighbours houses flooded out, we more or less got away with it) but this is forecast to be much worse, and - worryingly - the creek which is about 50m from my house is expected to flood.

And then there's the swell... gonna be big and out of control... it's just beginning to show and I was out there this morning and it was close to the limit of my comfort zone.

Wish me luck! And pass me a sandbag!

[peazz]

Dude, you didnt move yourself to the otherside of the world to pass up some swell like that, comfortable or not, you need to at least paddle out, even if you dont catch a wave just getting out there and surviving it all the way out back will boost your confidence in bigger conditions all round.

I did it in bondi on a 6/8ft day when a freak gale come through over night, I took a fat lip in the back, got pinned a bit but I got back out there and it really helped me

Regardless of the swell, be careful and take precautions

[drowningbitbybit]

Nah, this ain't just gonna be a big swell that can be paddled into. This is going to be a monster of a swell, and out of control with it. Think treble the size that Bondi could handle, maybe more.
There'll undoubtedly be a few towing in – it's the quiksilver pro at coolangatta in a weeks time, so, you know, there are gonna be a few talented people in the area – but otherwise, everyone will be on the beach watching it. The beaches and the points can't handle that kind of size, and only a fool would paddle out into it.

Anyway, I'm quite likely to be busy sandbagging my house...

[dtc]

Yeah, it's not (just) the swell that will get you, it's the sheer volume of water that is just moving back and forth. It's like a really strong beach rip, but everywhere and in multiple directions. You literally could not paddle out in some place, well you could but you may end up miles out to sea pretty quickly

Hope it all goes well for you DBB, I'll sit in my office and watch the surf cams

[oldmansurfer]

Be safe. Sounds pretty gnarly but to tell the truth I am so wave starved right now I would go out in anything as long as I think I would survive it. Hurricanes, sharks, you name it, as long as I think I can make it safely back to shore. I need some surf. The island I live on has had surf all the time but the east side has been so flat. I hear the north side has had epic surf but I just don't have time to go to the north side.

[drowningbitbybit]

So the weather forecast has been updated...

Tropical low may strengthen to cyclone Wednesday/Thursday.
85 km/h winds. 100+ km/h gusts.
Swell: 12-15ft. Severe beach erosion expected.
Rain: Up to 400mm on Friday leading to flash flooding.
Tide: Abnormally high tides combined with rain leading to severe flooding of low-lying areas.

Severe weather warning. All beaches closed. SE QLD residents advised to prepare for flooding. Widespread damage likely.


So, in a nutshell, this bit of QLD is going to be underwater, and all the beaches are going to be washed away
Stocked up on fresh water supplies as well as canned food last night. Torches, batteries, candles and matches in a safe dry place. The house should be safe as its raised (for exactly this reason), but my studio (which isn't) is gonna cop it!

The surf is beginning to show too - currently at about 6ft, but its the volume of water that's moving about that's preventing anyone from surfing. Jump in at Currumbin, and you'd be getting out (if you're lucky) several miles up the coast.

[drowningbitbybit]

You gotta love Australia... not one but two storm events happening this week!

Cyclone to the top left hitting the northern territory and queensland. Tropical low (likely to strengthen to a cyclone) to the right, and heading this way.

[drowningbitbybit]

That's it, it's officially a cyclone - Cyclone Marcia.
Expected to make landfall on Friday as a category 2, possibly higher. It'll be making landfall several hundred miles north, but then tracking south and the worst of the rain is likely to be... right here!

[dtc]

Marcia Marcia Marcia (am I the 5000th person to say that?)

On the surfcams today, Snapper was still its usual parade of ants. Currumbin was full of learners in the bay at high tide - never realised how much sand was exposed at low.

Time to hunker down and stay at home for a few days. Probably a good week until you can get back in the water anyway'.

[oldmansurfer]

hang in there. I have been through three hurricanes and it can be difficult. Just a little story for you, I had a surfer friend who went to college in New Jersy, yeah don't ask me why but he did and when a hurricane was approaching he was out surfing because it was the only nice sized waves he had seen since he was there. The police were on the beach yelling at him that a hurricane was coming and he was yelling back that he knew that. LOL

[oldmansurfer]

The last hurricane was Iniki and I had quit surfing at that time. My board (single glassed on fin 7'2" shortboard) got damaged by flying debris that went through the walls of the storage shed I had it in. I gave it to my nephew because I felt so bad for not getting it out in the water and letting it get damaged on land. I loved that board so I set her free Oh and I never went surfing when a Hurricane was going to hit in less than 24 hours. Hurricane Iniki was Sept 11 1992

[drowningbitbybit]

The waves are a bit disappointing so far - big, but nothing extraordinary. There is a LOT of water moving about though - way beyond what you could paddle against if you found yourself in the wrong spot. Waves expected to increase during the day.

Interestingly, it's the Quicksilver Pro next week, and they've built a whole building and a whole load of marquees right on Snapper... which I'm pretty sure are going to get flooded and washed away

On a completely separate note...

Currumbin was full of learners in the bay at high tide - never realised how much sand was exposed at low.

Don't get me started about that bank! At a king tide (like today), the sandbar between the creek and the point can go dry - and they only dredged it about a month ago! That sandbar means that the smaller inside section of the point just closes out. Last summer, the wave would run right across the bay, but this summer, the wave just flops over

Oh well, all the sand all along the QLD coast is about to move big time, so it will all be different in a couple of days time

[dtc]

If there is any sand left!

[oldmansurfer]

Here is some surf Marcia is generating http://www.mysurf.tv/categories/exclusive/532-classic-kirra-snapper-greenmount-thanks-cyclone-marcia

[drowningbitbybit]

Doesn't look like that today!

I think that was late yesterday afternoon as the swell began to pick up and there was an unexpected shift towards offshore winds.
The waves in that video look great... slightly intimidated by who was in the line-up though!

[drowningbitbybit]

Storm has intensified to a category 3... now expected to hit category 4...

Surf (well, waves anyway) has increased to 9-12ft on the sets. No-one out surfing at Currumbin except for a pair of tow-in crews.

House as prepped as can be, time to open a beer and wait!

[drowningbitbybit]

Category 5....

[jaffa1949]

Credence Clearwater revival, I see a bad mood rising , stay dry! We'll take the swelling!

[Jester]

Dude Batten down the hatches!! hope you've got all your gear out of your studio, just been looking into photography a little .. man that kit ain't cheap!! Might ask you some Q's sometime if I get my own camera if that's alright!

[oldmansurfer]

sounds like it's time for another beer