its never ending
Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:41 ambest autum swell i can rember
Yup, its all good.
Gordon is turning out to be a tricky one though... It'll definitely produce swell but will it be gorgeous long period, offshore swells or storm surf? Could go either way. This is from metcheck - its long, but quite interesting if you're into that sort of thing -
"Gordon Makes Waves
Added : Tue 19 September : 10:05BST
Well, quite literally... but then again Gordon is a category two hurricane.
By now, many of you will have heard that there is a "hurricane on the way" and for once, this could actually be true.
At present, there is a hurricane warning in force for the Azores out in the Atlantic. Whilst not unprecedented, this is the first hurricane warning for the islands since 1992 and hurricane Gordon could be only the tenth system to affect the islands since 1851.
Gordon is expected to cross the islands this afternoon and into this evening still as a category two hurricane and is likely to cause significant damage.
After this, weather models and weather forecasters diverge. The question is quite simply, how will Gordon interact with the cold front to its North? It's the answer to this question which dictates how it will affect the UK late on Wednesday.
The reason that the answer is so complex is because to a global weather model, hurricane Gordon is simply a small dot in the large mesh, however this small dot has massive amounts of power. Mesoscale models are now picking up on possible developments, however, even they rely on input from global models. This means, until Gordon is within the domain of the mesoscale model, the forecast situation will change quickly and abruptly.
So, where does this leave us? Here are the probabilistic forecasts for the next 48 hours :-
1. Gordon has no interaction with the British Isles (5%)
2. Gordon splits in two late on Wednesday evening taking gales and heavy rain North into Southern Ireland which later spreads East into Western areas (60%)
3. Gordon retains central circulation affecting Western Ireland as a Tropical Storm (20%)
4. Gordon retains central circulation affecting Western England and the Irish Sea as a Tropical Storm (15%)
In all honesty, this situation will be best forecast during tomorrow when nowcasting tools become available. Weather models are good, but only as good as the data which goes into them.
During tomorrow, satellite and ship information will be available which will allow us to fine tune exactly how Gordon interacts with that cold front and what path he'll take.
It's possible, that for many of us it'll turn a tad breezy and wet, it's also possible that an extremely ugly weather situation develops late on Wednesday for Western areas. "
So could go very good or very bad
