its never ending

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its never ending

Postby Phil » Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:41 am

best autum swell i can rember

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Postby drowningbitbybit » Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:45 am

:D :D :D :D :D :D

Yup, its all good.

Gordon is turning out to be a tricky one though... It'll definitely produce swell but will it be gorgeous long period, offshore swells or storm surf? Could go either way. This is from metcheck - its long, but quite interesting if you're into that sort of thing -

"Gordon Makes Waves
Added : Tue 19 September : 10:05BST

Well, quite literally... but then again Gordon is a category two hurricane.

By now, many of you will have heard that there is a "hurricane on the way" and for once, this could actually be true.

At present, there is a hurricane warning in force for the Azores out in the Atlantic. Whilst not unprecedented, this is the first hurricane warning for the islands since 1992 and hurricane Gordon could be only the tenth system to affect the islands since 1851.

Gordon is expected to cross the islands this afternoon and into this evening still as a category two hurricane and is likely to cause significant damage.

After this, weather models and weather forecasters diverge. The question is quite simply, how will Gordon interact with the cold front to its North? It's the answer to this question which dictates how it will affect the UK late on Wednesday.

The reason that the answer is so complex is because to a global weather model, hurricane Gordon is simply a small dot in the large mesh, however this small dot has massive amounts of power. Mesoscale models are now picking up on possible developments, however, even they rely on input from global models. This means, until Gordon is within the domain of the mesoscale model, the forecast situation will change quickly and abruptly.

So, where does this leave us? Here are the probabilistic forecasts for the next 48 hours :-

1. Gordon has no interaction with the British Isles (5%)
2. Gordon splits in two late on Wednesday evening taking gales and heavy rain North into Southern Ireland which later spreads East into Western areas (60%)
3. Gordon retains central circulation affecting Western Ireland as a Tropical Storm (20%)
4. Gordon retains central circulation affecting Western England and the Irish Sea as a Tropical Storm (15%)

In all honesty, this situation will be best forecast during tomorrow when nowcasting tools become available. Weather models are good, but only as good as the data which goes into them.

During tomorrow, satellite and ship information will be available which will allow us to fine tune exactly how Gordon interacts with that cold front and what path he'll take.

It's possible, that for many of us it'll turn a tad breezy and wet, it's also possible that an extremely ugly weather situation develops late on Wednesday for Western areas. "


So could go very good or very bad :shock:
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Postby thaya » Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:20 pm

hey matt I think you should have your own weather show live from your purple camper van! Quit your job and be a surf reporter for a cable channel :D
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Postby drowningbitbybit » Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:43 pm

thaya wrote:hey matt I think you should have your own weather show live from your purple camper van! Quit your job and be a surf reporter for a cable channel :D



Hmmm, its a career move I should consider :D

Im not sure the camper is the best vehicle for the job....

"And today we're reporting from Cornwall where the weather is sunny with a gentle offshore breeze and a fun waisthigh wave... By the middle of next week, I might have made it to scarborough for a north east weather report, as long as the van doesnt break down..." :?
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Postby PapaW » Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:07 pm

I love Autum!! :D
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Postby FishKid Wales » Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:53 pm

Got a little cough developing-I imagine it will be full blown by thursday, will proberbly be off work for a couple of days, will rub some vicks vapour rub on tommorow just to over emphasise that im very much a sick person :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Postby southwestsurfer » Tue Sep 19, 2006 5:11 pm

not only does the hurrican bring waves but nice weather, 30C planned for this week. 8)
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Postby rich r » Tue Sep 19, 2006 6:36 pm

New Jersey enjoyed 3 days of chest to head high surf.. has sorta blown out now, but we're expecting it to build towards the end of the week again.
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Postby GowerCharger » Tue Sep 19, 2006 7:38 pm

looks good for swell but i dont trust any wind forecasts ive seen so far.
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Postby kitesurfer » Tue Sep 19, 2006 8:55 pm

Ahh, the wind we love it. Opps sorry, Ahh the wind i love it! :D
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Postby Phil » Tue Sep 19, 2006 9:13 pm

you up for a surf on saturday kitey?
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Postby cj » Wed Sep 20, 2006 3:44 am

The fall is definately the best season for waves here in Michigan. Love a nice SW at Frankfort.
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Postby PapaW » Thu Sep 21, 2006 4:49 pm

What I love about this time of year is you rarly need to worry about what the swell is doing... just a quick glance at the bouys to decide on a spot and its only ever the winds that you watch with detail.
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Postby Phil » Fri Sep 29, 2006 7:42 pm

just when i thought it was gonna quiten down a bit


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Postby ken » Fri Sep 29, 2006 7:45 pm

Northern ireland barely got any of that swell :(
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