Predicting the Surf - could you help me?

[iomarti]

I know some of you are excellent at reading the charts and stuff, so I hoped that you'd be able to help me.

Basically I need to write a list of my annual leave and days I'm working until September..and these days are usually the days that I think there will be good surf. Normally I can decide the week before, after havin a look at Magic Seaweed. I am absolutely gutted about this, and if I did it alone I'd just have to guess days...

can anyone help me predict the surf until Sep 1st? Or am I asking for the immpossible?

[bluesnowcone]

well long range charts are hard to get right, you could probably pedict it for about two weeks but then it will get to hard to predict, i normaly only sheck it for a week so your gunu have to find someone who does do long range charts.

[dougirwin13]

One month swell prediction?

Hope you know your great circles and swell window REALLY well!

Because swell from that distance is going to have to go most of the way around the world.

I know my swell window really well and the best I can manage is a bit under two weeks.

And then you still need to worry about the wind on the day... I hate predicting windshift :(

-doug

[iomarti]

Hmmm, it is as I expected - not gonna be possible. I'm afraid Doug, I have absolutely no idea about my swell circles and windows...and my 'ability' to predict surf is really an ability to read the magic seaweed website... 'oh look, 3 black stars...' etc.

I'll see how my guessing works out.. but thanks anyway guys.

[drowningbitbybit]

This one's easy -

Q Is it possible to predict swell for one months time?

A. No.





All you can do is know when the summer tends to break down and the autumn swell begins "on average". At least you've got a fairly good chance with september


Oh, Ive just read that again... you're looking for swell before the 1st sept... oh, you're stuffed then

For whats its worth, the longest range forecast I can do (which is only just better than guessing) says we're looking at a decreasing swell for the next week, followed by a flat period. If I was next to the beach, I'd get in there as soon as you can.

[dondiemand]

you may want to check the summer report on www.wavewatch.com, it's kind of a "prediction" for this summer

[dougirwin13]

Well... I reckon it's possible. But very difficult and inaccurate. And it depends on the place.

You'll need a very deep low producing 18+ second period swell and seas to 20 meters minimum. And that's going to have to be about 21,000 nautical miles away (theres on of those in my swell window right now . It will need to be pointed in EXACTLY your direction along a great circle route - if it's ever so slightly off the groundswell will miss you altogethor. And there are other complicating factors on top of this (continental shelving, local obstructions, islands, etc).

I strongly recommend everyone take the time to learn about where swell comes from, what their local swell window is, what great circles are, etc. With a little work you can easily predict more accurately than magic seaweed and further away. And at least you will know where it all comes from

A reall good primer is Lud's Wave Prediction FAQ. The original page doesn't seem to be up anymore but there are plenty of mirrors around. including one here.

I am almost hesitant about sharig this one... But fair is fair I guess. MetEd has their Marine Met/Oceans courses online. In particular the Wave Life Cycle topics are great. They come with handy swell travel and decay charts for easy checking of swell travel/arrival times.

I mean, what else are you gonna do when there's no waves

Have fun!

-doug

[drowningbitbybit]

You'll need a very deep low producing 18+ second period swell and seas to 20 meters minimum. And that's going to have to be about 21,000 nautical miles away

Sadly that doesnt work in the UK! To get 21,000 nautical miles from Newquay (where iomarti is) you'd need to be in the middle of the arctic, or in the wrong hemisphere!

A tropical storm brewing around cuba and moving north is about the closest comparison you could make for the UK.

[PapaW]

On a lighter note the hurricane season has come 3 months late this year and I'm expecting to see a fairly constant swell hitting the SW for atleast the next two weeks if not more. Trouble is untill these systems that are passing accross become more regemented the winds going to be a bugger as they are all getting sucked north of the main SW swell window :(

[dougirwin13]

hehe! Like I said And it depends on the place.

Looks like you are out of luck io!

But I still encourage everyone to do the reading I suggested

-doug

[iomarti]

ok doug, i shall.

Feel free to set me an exam in a few months time, we'll see how I get on...

I will be predicting surf like an oracle.

[dougirwin13]

I am sure you will!

At the very least you'll know when swell should be headed your way

-doug