Word has it, that they're trying to have it on Niijima island. It is in the territory of Tokyo. Chiba is not. However Tokyo Disneyland is in Chiba, so maybe they'll bend the rules. But if there is no typhoon, the waves will be flat and wind swill be on-shore in August, like it is right now.
I am totally against having surfing in the Olympics. But the surfing community here wants it so bad. You can accurately judge a 100 meter dash each and every time. For surfing, what if one heat has waves and another is flat ? The rings, pommel horse, un-even bars, target, goal don't change from minute to minute. Plus getting all the competitors, organizer, fans and family to Niijima will be a logistic nightmare.