Surf Forecasting Help

[Supafly]

Hey guys I am wondering if any of you can give me some help with surf forecasting fundamentals.

At the moment i'm just using sites like Magic Seaweed, Surf-forecast.com and local websites and cams - Surf.co.nz and Surf2Surf.co.nz (pretty avg in NZ as they only show the main breaks and not some of the off the beaten track spots).

I am wanting to try and learn more about using weather forecasts and what not to help me, and hopefully pick days when other reports from these sites may be wrong. I have just recently found this weather report website www.metconnect.co.nz (login - myweatherplus, password - weather4u) but I have absolutely no clue what to look for and if it is even worth looking at (cant find xxxxx on Dunedin) but anyways i guess what i'm asking is what type of charts/reports do i use and what do i look out for?

Cheers any help much apprieciated

SF

[dougirwin13]

Start researching swell windows and fetch. There are a lot of papers and instruction on the web.

[sinistapenguin]

try www.swell-forecast.com - it has a load of tutorials on how to use the isobar charts, wind charts etc. Then it has links to lots of them for you to use!

[Rogue_Shadow]

handy website links.
Thanks!

[Supafly]

Yea would be great except it's only just for Euro, cheers though sinista. Any NZ'ers out there that use extra info apart from surf.co, surf2surf and surf-forecast?

[sinistapenguin]

Hi, yeah, I know, but I think the principles of forecasting in the tutorials are pretty sound!

[dougirwin13]

There are plenty of forecast services that cover my haunts. But by really understanding the concepts I am able to pick incoming swell that doesn't always make the broader services. Especially those that originate more than a week away (tip for sozzies - watch for deep lows that swing north of Heard Island).

So assuming you want to actually learn to forecast rather than read forecast services...
1) Understand the concepts properly. Some links have been provided above. Personally I am a fan of getting you to researchusing Google in this case.
2) Work out your swell window (the extremes on both sides in particular).
3) Check for lows daily and keep track of ones you have already spotted.
4) Watch the lows that swing into your swell window.
5) When a low is in your swell window and pointing towards you work out the path the swell will take and the travel time.
6) Estimate when it will hit and how big you think it will be.
7) Write it down! This is the most important bit. If you don't record your predictions you will not get better. Leave a couple of blank lines after if you are using pena nd paper.
Check how accurate you were - make notes on it in the blank space near the prediction.

Well that's how I learnt

[Supafly]

Cheers dougirwin for the advice, will give it a go after i do a little more research (still got a few articles and papers to read) and will post back eventually with how my first prediction/forecast goes

[dougirwin13]

Looking forward to hearing your experiences.

We could maybe turn this thread into a practical "how-to"?

[Supafly]

Hey guys just posting back with very high stoke right now got my 2nd attempt at predicting good waves pretty much bang on (did cheat a bit on the day - as theres a port cam WAAAAY up on a hill about 15km from the spot and could see a little white which generally means 'waves' ).

All the forecasting websites that I use for my area all showed little to no swell around on the North East Coast but after looking at the Isobar charts with a pressing low yesterday and a few other charts to confirm etc that my reading told me to check out, i saw that there was potential for some epic waves to be had and was right. So stoked right now as it was probably my surf of the winter and probably would have missed it if i was going by the standard websites.

Anyways Cheers guys for the advice

[dougirwin13]

Awesome! Welcome to forecasting! Ain't it great?

[esonscar]

Forecasting ? - FORECASTING ! ..........

Pitch a tent, buy some beer and food, get loads of wood, have a fire and cook away - drink and eat until the swell arrives !

FORECASTING ! Hahahahaaha,


Just joking - well not really, but yeah, look at the data and the wind and assess the sandbars and the tides and the local winds and the temperature and the neap tides and the ...... aw sod it - tent and beer and food [edit] campervan and beer and food

[dougirwin13]

Sounds like your forecasts need some work

You are keeping a forecast journal, aren't you?

[subasurf]

Pitch a tent, buy some beer and food, get loads of wood, have a fire and cook away - drink and eat until the swell arrives !

That's how we use to do it
Anyhoo, this thread has definitely inspired me to look into the subject. I've always just used our local surf forecast web page to know if I should chuck the board in the car. swellnet.com.au has been pretty good in the past and luckily for me I'm so close to the beach that if it's wrong it doesn't really mean I've wasted any time.

[SoCalRipper]

I use this website Swell Magnet.com. Very helpful and extremely accurate for surf forecasting. They also have very good live cams.
http://swellmagnet.com/surf_forecast_pr ... ecast.html?