Never trust a forecast site

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Never trust a forecast site

Postby Jonah_Fro » Wed Jan 07, 2009 5:20 pm

Interesting surf report for Devon North Coast in the next few days on MSW.

Tuesday shows a 12ft swell, flat waves, with a 5 star rating.

:?
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Postby essex sucks » Wed Jan 07, 2009 6:07 pm

no u need to read between the lines do not use the star rateing or the falt bit
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Postby Sillysausage » Wed Jan 07, 2009 7:29 pm

haha. wouldnt trust the seaweed anyway but can be ok for seeing if any swell is coming but wouldnt trust it for size, period or anything else. it also misses swell sometimes
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Postby sebastiansurfer » Wed Jan 07, 2009 7:46 pm

swellinfo works pretty well for approximation
which is what theyre designed for
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Postby RJD » Wed Jan 07, 2009 7:54 pm

MSW is as accurate as my nan most times. And she's dead.
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Postby surferdude_scarborough » Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:05 pm

as long as you figure out what forecasts do what for your local break then it works just fine. it gives an idea of what the swell is. its never going to give a you an accurate idea of the waves at the beach but it tells you that on the site if you care enough to read the forecast guides n stuff.
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Postby twerked » Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:14 pm

use local surf reports. they're much better and the people know the area much better. i use msw for just general forecasting stuff. but personally, i just look at the weather patterns and local sites for better ideas of what's going to happen in the next few days. don't forget, it is forecasting, it's about the same level as tarot cards and crystal ball reading
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Postby surferdude_scarborough » Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:17 pm

i use msw for forecasting and mt intuition when i get to a beach and can feel the conditions. im usually right on my first choice of beach. lets say 8 out of 10 times. so msw cant be that bad. you have to remember its a tool in making your own forecast for the waves at your beach not a surf report.
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Postby isaluteyou » Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:18 pm

i dont rely on surf reports that are genralised. Its better to know your spots and how they react to swell direction, tides, wind, period, etc... Then you can formulate a better reading from the swell report :wink:
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Postby Jonah_Fro » Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:40 pm

^.... All valid points, I just thought a 5 star rating for "flat" waves was funny. Guess you needed to be there.

:oops:
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Postby stuzzy07 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:08 pm

You also have to take in to approximation the contour of the sea floor at the break you are at and swell angle...MSW just gives you an estimate of Swell ht. not wave height.... at my local break it can say 12 ft. and 10 secs and still only be like 2 feet, whereas if i travel up the coast about 1 1/2 hours it can have the same forecast of 12 ft. and 10secs but it will actually be about 10 to 12 ft.....but sometimes the forecast are just way off
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Postby isaluteyou » Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:36 pm

but sometimes the forecast are just way off


Yep thats why i use 3 different forcasts to aproximate my own forcast im usually fairly accurate give or take :wink:
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