Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

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Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby Banana » Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:28 am

I've discovered that at South Beach in Crescent City, CA, the surfing is best when the swell is small. For example, I rated the waves a 9 out of 10 on this day (Oct 19):

Screenshot_20201019-062153_2.jpg


Usually, when they are bigger, they aren't as good (despite MSW's star rating). For example, yesterday it was mostly closeouts (I rated the waves as 4 out of 10):

Screenshot_20201202-072331_2.jpg


Can I expect any brief periods of smaller waves during the winter?

Thanks.
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Re: Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby dtc » Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:02 am

Have a look at the swell direction between those two days. Far more important than the size of the waves
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Re: Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby ConcreteVitamin » Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:15 am

That's indeed Far Northern California!
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Re: Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby BaNZ » Fri Dec 04, 2020 5:34 am

Yes, there will be days where it is flat.

I'm guessing it's a beach break? From my experiences, it's rare that they hold the size well.
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Re: Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby jaffa1949 » Fri Dec 04, 2020 7:19 am

Compare the two charts swell angle indeed, period in the first chart with light off shore winds, grooming during daylight hours
second chart totally different angle of swell and larger size longer period meaning more power but then messed up,by an onshore wind or cross onshore wind
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Re: Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby krustyburger » Fri Dec 04, 2020 3:49 pm

Yes, there will be lulls in the swell energy in the winter months, but they may be few and far between. Anything facing Northwest gets huge. Right now, the Humboldt buoy is reading 7ft @ 22s. There should be a lull in swell this Sunday/ Monday before an even bigger XXL swell creeps in on Tuesday. Its frustrating when you can't find a spot to surf but I do love seeing the raw power of the ocean on those days.

Definitely try and take advantage of those days when it is comparatively "flat".

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Re: Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby IB_Surfer » Fri Dec 04, 2020 5:36 pm

The surf is usually bigger in the winter, there are a bunch of northern storms that bring energy to our coasts. Today it was a couple of feet overhead in San Diego.
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Re: Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby BaNZ » Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:21 pm

krustyburger wrote:


The guy is an idiot, they shouldn't waste time and put themselves in danger. If he didn't reverse as soon as that first wave hit. He is suiciding.
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Re: Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby krustyburger » Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:04 pm

The guy is an idiot, they shouldn't waste time and put themselves in danger. If he didn't reverse as soon as that first wave hit. He is suiciding.


I agree, not sure what he thought he was going to find at the end of that jetty.
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Re: Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby Banana » Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:47 pm

BaNZ wrote:Yes, there will be days where it is flat.

I'm guessing it's a beach break? From my experiences, it's rare that they hold the size well.


Good to know that I (probably) won't have to wait until spring to surf again.

Yes, a beach break, and yes, it seems that above a certain size the waves are closeout barrels.

I understand about the other variables (such as swell direction). I have a simple database of surf sessions. I take a screenshot of the forecast and then make comments when I get home:

Screen Shot 2020-12-04 at 3.36.44 PM.jpg
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Re: Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby Naeco78 » Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:48 pm

The 23 second swell period in the second chart is massive, probably from a large and distant storm. That's almost always gonna be closeouts at beach breaks in my experience. Long-period swells 'feel' the ocean floor much sooner and that usually causes the wave to break all at once, by the time it reaches shore. The wave energy extends Very deep underwater, for a 23s interval.

A 23 second swell period would start to feel the ocean floor at 1,354ft deep. (23' swell (squared) * 2.56). Point breaks are your best bet for that type of swell.
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Re: Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby Naeco78 » Sat Dec 05, 2020 12:25 am

Nice area btw, I flew into Crescent City a couple decades ago. Looked like an awesome Point Break right there in walking distance from the airport. Looked like a really sheltered break though.. maybe too much. That was back in the early days of Surfline.. it was a totally empty peak while i was there.
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Re: Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby Banana » Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:31 am

Naeco78 wrote:Nice area btw, I flew into Crescent City a couple decades ago. Looked like an awesome Point Break right there in walking distance from the airport. Looked like a really sheltered break though.. maybe too much. That was back in the early days of Surfline.. it was a totally empty peak while i was there.


Yes, I've seen that point break working well with a few surfers on it. Never tried it myself, but with your reminder, maybe I'll check it out next time I'm up there.

There's another spot that looks good at Pt. St. George, but it's more isolated, so surfing alone there could be problematic.

Screen Shot 2020-12-04 at 5.30.25 PM.jpg
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Re: Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby Naeco78 » Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:42 am

Here's an old pic i still have from the trip. Not much size, but it looked like it was peeling almost perfectly for that spot

CrescentB The Point.JPG
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Re: Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby Banana » Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:46 am

Yes, that's it.

Naeco78 wrote:The 23 second swell period in the second chart is massive.


That's one reason I went—I wanted to see what that was like. There indeed was a lot of time between swells and between sets.

When it's big, I can surf at "Jetty," but the waves aren't always good there.

SouthBeach2.jpg
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Re: Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby Banana » Thu Dec 24, 2020 6:25 pm

BaNZ wrote:Yes, there will be days where it is flat.

I'm guessing it's a beach break? From my experiences, it's rare that they hold the size well.


Got a one-day respite from the big waves, and I took advantage of it.

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20201223_143208.jpg
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Re: Can I Expect Some Smaller Swells During Winter?

Postby jaffa1949 » Thu Dec 24, 2020 7:18 pm

Bodhi from Point Breaks suggests the 2020 Corona Del Mar swell (aka the 100 year swell)mis going to hit soon and wipe all memory of what went before away!.The last Big Wednesday of 2020 :lol:

Stay healthy happy, and enjoying what you have with your family and friends! :lol:
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