Hi Lachy,
Welcome to Surfing Waves. You've probably seen me about as my local is the alley too
What surf forecast are you using?
The basics... (these are general rules with a bit of Gold Coast thrown in)...
The best swell direction for the GC is from the east, but anything NE to SE will do. SE swell will slide right past a lot of the breaks, including Currumbin, so it will be smaller there than at, for example, D'bah, which is exposed to the southerly swell (vice versa for a NE swell).
A period of less than 8 seconds is just windchop, 9 - 11 seconds is good quality groundswell, 12s+ is very powerful groundswell. So as well as the size of the swell, you need to look at the period - for example, 1m at 5s is basically flat, but 1m at 10s is perfectly surfable. 2m at 12s will be too big for anyone but the very experienced.
Next up is the wind. Currumbin and Burleigh both work best when the wind is from the SW, but can tolerate wind from the S or W (even NW if its not too strong).
The strong westerlies we've been having recently will knock the small swell flat (like a week ago) or hold it up into big grinding barrels (like yesterday).
The tides have some effect too - if it's small, it won't break at high tide, and mid-tide will be better. Low tide usually works better on very small days, but you're probably better off on the beachies than the points.
So looking at this week...
http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc ... sty=m_spotTomorrow is 1m at 10s with 19km/h SW winds... looking pretty good for a small fun session on smallish waves
Wednesday getting a bit windy and smaller, and then very small by the end of the week (0.5m @ 4s = flat).